Game One Preview: Lions at Raiders

Game 1 Preview
DETROIT LIONS (3-13, 2-2 preseason) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-14, 2-2 preseason)

OVERVIEW: Last season, the Oakland Raiders turned in one of the most anemic offensive performances in the NFL over the past decade. After averaging roughly 10 points and 250 yards per game in 2006, the Raiders cleaned some house. While the offensive line was undoubtedly a serious concern, some significant changes came at the skill positions. Gone is QB Aaron Brooks and enigmatic WR Randy Moss. In their stead are Daunte Culpepper (or Josh McCown) and former whipping boy Jerry Porter. Zach Miller bumps out two ineffective TEs, longtime Raider Zach Crockett is gone at the FB spot, and Dominic Rhodes (once he serves his four game suspension)
joins a hopefully healthy LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas at RB. Preseason gave Raiders fans at least something to cheer about, as the Raiders averaged 20 points per game and approximately 70 yards more per game. The question marks remain obviously as no turnaround happens over night. Luckily, they face a team that was just as pitiful last season, whose struggles came on the defensive side of the ball (Detroit yielded nearly 400 points last season, 3rd worst in the NFL, and 346 yards per game, 5th worst in the NFL),

QUARTERBACK: Head Coach Lain Kiffin has still not said who will be starting at the QB spot. To most NFL fans, the choice is obvious: Daunte Culpepper should start. Although injured and less effective last season than in previous years, Culpepper is still a big name QB with playoff experience, loads of talent, and a strong arm. His chief competition comes from the gunslinging Josh McCown who puts up monstrous numbers in both yards (two games with more than 350 yards passing in his past six starts and four of at least 290 yards) and interceptions (has thrown at least one pick in 10 of his last 11 appearances, including three double-digit INT games). Both QBs have some mobility, but Culpepper takes the edge with his feet and makes better decisions as well. Because either could get the nod, I provide both projections:
Daunte Culpepper 19 completions, 31 attempts, 245 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Josh McCown 17 completions, 28 attempts, 204 yards, 1 TD, 1.5 INT (.5 indicates a solid likelihood of an additional occurrence)

RUNNING BACK: Even if Dominic Rhodes were available, LaMont Jordan has probably secured the starting spot with 28 carries, 126 yards, and two rushing TDs along with 2 receptions for 68 yards in three preseason games. Justin Fargas added 90 yards on 27 carries but showed decent ability late last season as the featured back. “Joe” Echemandu added a team-high 168 yards rushing during the preseason. All three will likely see some time as the Raiders struggle to establish the run after its being absent for the past few seasons.
LaMont Jordan: 16 carries, 58 yards. .4 TD (40% chance of a score) as well as 3 grabs for 27 yards

RECEIVERS: Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, Travis Taylor, Mike Williams, and Johnnie Lee Higgins hold down the Wide Receiver spots while Zach Miller, John Madsen, and Tony Stewart man the Tight End position for Oakland. Not exactly a lot of big name recognition there, but the Raiders are considered deep with reasonable talent. Porter (76 catches in ‘05), Curry (62 catches last
Season), and Williams (57 catches in ‘06) have all had at least one solid season as a WR so there is no clear pecking order. Given Porter’s long tenure with the Raiders and Curry’s impressive season in ‘06, I would expect one of them to grab the limelight. Zach Miller could have the best season for an Oakland TE in a long, long time.
Jerry Porter: 4 receptions, 43 yards
Zach Miller: 3 receptions, 32 yards

SPECIAL TEAMS: Last season, Sebastian Janikowski hit on 15 of 18 kicks shorter than 50 yards. Had the Raiders been able to do anything at all offensively, he would have had a chance to kick another five to ten manageable field goals. He has missed just two of his career 245 PATs. Shane Lechler, considered by many one of the greatest punters in NFL history, increased his per punt average to 46.1 yards with a ridiculous 47.3 yard per punt average last season. Chris Carr’s 25.5 yard per kickoff return gave the Raiders a solid return man, leaving Punt Returner and kick coverage as the only gaps on an otherwise amazing special teams unit. Enter Johnnie Lee Higgins, a blazing fast rookie WR who returned one punt for 90 yards in the preseason while averaging 24.2 yards on 5 punt returns overall. Look for electricity in the return game.

DEFENSE: In my opinion, the most underrated defense in the NFL, the Raiders followed up a superb season wherein they yielded the fewest passing yards in the NFL with a solid preseason that saw them yield an average of 280 yards per game and 18 points per game (down from 285 yards, 3rd best, during the regular season and 22 points per game, 18th worst, during the regular season). The Raiders added 6 sacks during the preseason, down a bit from their amazing average of more than two sacks per game last season, including double digits from Derrick Burgess and Warren Sapp.
Defense: 1.25 INTs, 3 Sacks

PREDICTION: When a team has won just 2 of its past 16 regular season games and 13 of its past 64, every win is an unlikely event. Nonetheless, facing a weak team at home, I expect the new-look Raiders to start things out on a positive note.

Raiders 21
Lions 17